As the U.S. presidential landscape shifts, many are looking toward Donald Trump’s upcoming term with a mixture of hope and skepticism, especially in the Middle East. Trump, who previously vowed to reduce American involvement in regional conflicts, is now in a position where he could potentially influence peace initiatives across one of the world's most turbulent regions. But the question remains: can he truly reconcile two historic adversaries—Israel and Iran?
Renewed Hopes Amidst Long-Standing Conflicts
Trump’s return has sparked a mix of relief and anticipation in the Middle East. Many people are hopeful that his leadership will bring a fresh approach to resolving ongoing conflicts and restoring stability. During his campaign, he emphasized his commitment to ending wars, pledging to end the Gaza conflict, facilitate the return of hostages, and mitigate the risks posed by Iran and its allies. But achieving this ambitious goal won’t be easy.
Balancing Israel's Expectations
Trump’s Middle East agenda will likely require close collaboration with Israel, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to place considerable demands on the administration. According to Abdullah Al-Junaid, a Middle East political analyst, Netanyahu may seek substantial concessions for any compromise, including potential shifts in the West Bank and security assurances in Gaza and Lebanon.
In 2020, Trump unveiled the “Deal of the Century,” a peace proposal that, despite bold aims, was ultimately unsuccessful. The plan faced strong opposition, particularly from Palestinians and some conservative factions within Israel, and failed to resolve deep-rooted conflicts. With Trump’s second term, a renewed effort to build diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab states, most notably Saudi Arabia, could be on the horizon. However, experts warn that this will be a challenging feat given the current state of regional affairs.
Regional Skepticism on Expanding Peace Initiatives
Many Arab nations remain wary of building stronger ties with Israel, particularly given the intensifying hostilities in Gaza and Lebanon. Middle Eastern nations such as Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates are facing increased criticism domestically and from neighboring countries. Mohammad Marandi, a professor and political analyst from Tehran, notes that public opinion has soured on governments perceived as either indifferent or complicit in ongoing conflicts with Israel.
Even if Trump can sway leaders in the region to consider peace talks, deep-seated tensions could stand in the way. Arab populations have grown increasingly critical of alliances that seem to ignore Palestinian struggles and other regional conflicts. For Trump, the challenge is not only diplomatic but also cultural, as he navigates complex perceptions and historical grievances across the region.
Security Concerns and Netanyahu’s Strategy
As always, Israel’s security is central to Netanyahu’s priorities, and he has made it clear that achieving his nation’s security goals is non-negotiable. For him, any truce or peace deal must ensure the safe return of hostages, the resettlement of displaced Israeli residents in the north, and a reduction in threats from Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Biden administration took a relatively restrained stance on certain issues, including limiting Israeli control at the Rafah border and in the Philadelphi corridor—two areas of concern for Israeli security officials due to reported arms smuggling activities. Netanyahu expects Trump to adopt a more assertive approach, possibly pressing for stricter security measures along the border and tougher actions against Hezbollah. This could put Trump in a tight spot, balancing Israeli demands with broader regional stability.
Reassessing U.S.-Iran Relations
Trump’s previous tenure saw heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, marked by economic sanctions and the assassination of key Iranian military figure Qassem Soleimani. Experts, including Mohammad Marandi, caution that a renewed hardline stance toward Iran could trigger further unrest, potentially affecting the global economy. Marandi argues that if Trump truly aims to alleviate economic hardships within the U.S., he may need to pursue a less confrontational approach toward both Iran and Russia.
Failure to adopt a more diplomatic approach could have far-reaching consequences, with an escalation of regional conflicts that might disrupt oil and gas exports from the Gulf. Such instability could drive a global economic downturn and worsen the refugee crisis, with Europe and the U.S. feeling the ripple effects of heightened instability.
Strategic Interests Beyond the Middle East
Trump’s foreign policy ambitions likely extend beyond simply brokering Middle East peace. His promises to end “endless wars” encompass other geopolitical concerns, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Al-Junaid suggests that Washington may pursue a “balanced” approach with Iran out of necessity, both to help stabilize the Middle East and to focus on resolving issues elsewhere.
However, Marandi remains skeptical about whether this balance is feasible. He warns that historical patterns suggest the U.S. might revert to a hawkish stance, prioritizing sanctions and pressure over negotiations and coexistence. Trump’s ability to manage these complex dynamics will undoubtedly be tested as he seeks to fulfill his foreign policy vision.
Is a Balanced Approach Possible?
A balanced approach in the Middle East would entail ending sanctions, supporting regional sovereignty, and fostering peaceful relations between Israel and its neighbors. While this outcome seems ideal, it may be overly optimistic. Long-standing ideological divides and political pressures make it challenging to envision a straightforward solution.
Ultimately, the success of Trump’s peace efforts will depend on his administration’s willingness to engage in meaningful dialogue, make strategic compromises, and address the nuanced concerns of each nation involved. The path to peace is undoubtedly complex, but with focused diplomatic efforts, a resolution could be within reach.
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