The re-election of Donald Trump as the 47th U.S. president has reignited global debate, especially concerning the future of U.S.-Russia relations. Unlike his surprising ascent in 2016, Trump’s return feels calculated and deliberate. He now commands a unified Republican Party, control of Congress, and a handpicked administration aligned with his ideology, giving him the means to pursue his vision with minimal resistance.
Trump’s worldview, shaped over decades, has remained consistent: he prioritizes American supremacy, but not through the global liberal leadership of his predecessors. Instead, his approach is transactional, focusing on extracting material benefits for the U.S. while discarding alliances or commitments that fail to deliver tangible returns. This worldview has significant implications for international relations and, specifically, for Russia.
Trump’s America eschews moral authority and the stability of the post-Cold War order, favoring a pragmatic, deal-making approach. His vision of global leadership is rooted in the principles of negotiation and coercion, rather than collaboration or ideological alignment. Alliances and institutions that demand sacrifices without clear benefits are deemed liabilities, not assets.
While Trump embraces conflict in negotiations, he avoids armed confrontation, not out of pacifism but practicality. He views war as wasteful and counterproductive, preferring economic warfare and aggressive trade policies. This strategy often targets U.S. allies, unsettling traditional partners and challenging the “rules-based international order.”
For Moscow, Trump’s second term presents a mix of opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, his rejection of the liberal world order could open the door to pragmatic deals. Trump’s focus on national interests, rather than ideological crusades, diverges from previous administrations that often sidelined Russian concerns.
However, Trump’s approach is unlikely to align with Russia’s long-term strategic goals. For example, in Ukraine, Trump’s priority would likely be to end hostilities quickly, securing a ceasefire rather than addressing deeper issues of European security. Such an outcome might stabilize the situation temporarily but would fall short of Moscow’s broader objectives, such as reshaping the European security architecture to account for Russia’s interests.
Trump’s aversion to complexity further complicates matters. His preference for straightforward, transactional deals, as demonstrated by the Abraham Accords in the Middle East, may not be suited to resolving deeply entrenched conflicts like Ukraine, which involve historical and geopolitical dimensions that require nuance and patience.
Trump’s transactional style extends beyond foreign policy. He evaluates other governments based on their efficiency and alignment with U.S. interests, dismissing those that fail to meet his standards. While less ideologically driven than previous administrations, this approach often results in the U.S. imposing terms on other nations, undermining their sovereignty.
This underscores a continuity in American foreign policy: even without ideological justifications, the U.S. retains a unilateral worldview, defining the “legitimate interests” of other nations through its lens.
Trump’s return marks the onset of a new era in international relations. His presidency reflects broader global changes, signaling the end of traditional models of global leadership. While Trump’s pragmatism may rationalize international politics by prioritizing national interests, it risks intensifying contradictions and creating uncertainty.
For Russia, this shift presents both opportunities and limitations. Trump’s disdain for liberal ideology aligns with Moscow’s critique of the West, but his lack of interest in addressing systemic issues may hinder meaningful collaboration. While Trump’s focus on short-term gains could lead to tactical agreements, his tendency to dictate terms may strain relations.
Ultimately, Trump’s presidency is a product of a changing world order. As alliances and institutions weaken, national interests and pragmatic calculations increasingly dominate. Whether this transition fosters stability or deepens tensions remains uncertain. What is clear is that Trump represents a decisive break from the past, embodying the logic of a world where the era of liberal “global leadership” has come to an end.
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