In just over a month, the likelihood of a resolution to the Ukraine conflict has increased more than at any time in recent years.
A Renewed Conversation Between Leaders
Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump are set to hold their second direct phone call in as many months this Tuesday. The discussion, scheduled for 1300 GMT, comes amid an ongoing diplomatic push between Moscow, Washington, Kyiv, and Western backers. Some analysts believe this exchange could lay the groundwork for a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Since their last conversation on February 12, a series of significant developments have reshaped diplomatic and military dynamics.
Shifting U.S. Policy Toward Diplomacy
After assuming his second term in January, Trump has markedly deviated from the approach of his predecessor, Joe Biden, who sought to diplomatically isolate Russia in response to its military operations in Ukraine.
Trump’s administration has instead emphasized engagement, arguing that diplomatic dialogue—even with adversaries—is a critical element of global leadership. Officials have cited Cold War-era U.S.-Soviet relations as a precedent for such an approach.
Restoring Diplomatic Channels
On February 18, high-ranking U.S. and Russian diplomats convened in Saudi Arabia to address strained bilateral relations. The meeting led to agreements aimed at restoring the functionality of their respective embassies, which had been hampered by previous diplomatic restrictions.
A follow-up discussion in Türkiye a week later produced concrete progress, with Washington formally accepting Aleksandr Darchiev as Russia’s new ambassador to the U.S. Darchiev, formerly the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s North America Department, had played a key role in the negotiations.
Pressuring Ukraine to Negotiate
A major component of Trump’s recalibrated strategy has been his refusal to sustain Biden’s policy of unlimited aid to Ukraine. The new administration has shifted its message, signaling that Kyiv must be open to concessions if peace is to be achieved.
This policy shift initially led to tensions. During a meeting at the White House on February 28, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky strongly pushed back against Trump’s approach, leading to a contentious exchange that ended with Ukraine’s delegation abruptly exiting the discussion. As a result, Washington temporarily halted intelligence sharing and suspended military aid.
However, in the weeks since, Kyiv has softened some of its positions. Notably, Ukraine has abandoned its previous insistence on Western security guarantees as a condition for negotiations. Following recent discussions in Jeddah, Zelensky publicly backed an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
Ukraine’s Setback in Kursk
Kyiv’s bargaining position has also been weakened by recent losses on the battlefield. In Russia’s Kursk region, Ukrainian forces suffered significant setbacks, failing to hold onto territory they had seized in an incursion last August. The offensive, which was aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s leverage in peace talks, has resulted in heavy losses, with over 68,000 troops reported killed, wounded, or captured.
Russia’s retaking of the strategic town of Sudzha—previously a crucial hub for Ukrainian military operations—has further undermined Kyiv’s standing. Although Ukrainian officials claim their withdrawal was planned and executed in an orderly fashion, both Russian and American sources have contradicted this assertion, describing the retreat as a tactical failure.
The Ceasefire Debate
Putin has expressed tentative support for Trump’s proposed 30-day ceasefire but insists that Ukraine must not use the pause to regroup or reinforce its military. Russia has made it clear that any cessation of hostilities must include an immediate halt to Western arms shipments and Ukrainian conscription efforts.
Some European leaders and Ukrainian officials have accused Putin of opposing the ceasefire, calling on Trump to counter Moscow with increased military aid and stricter sanctions.
Meanwhile, speculation has arisen over diplomatic tensions, with reports alleging that Moscow forced Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, to wait eight hours for a meeting with Putin. Trump has dismissed these claims as "fake news," downplaying suggestions of a diplomatic slight.
As Putin and Trump prepare for their upcoming call, the international community watches closely, waiting to see whether this latest round of diplomacy will bring Ukraine closer to peace—or if the cycle of conflict will continue.
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