Let’s be real — if there’s one thing Moscow has learned over the last few decades, it’s that alliances built on convenience don’t last long. And when Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says something is “unthinkable,” he usually means it.
This week, Lavrov made it crystal clear: Russia won’t team up with the US against China. Not for nuclear talks, not for political pressure, and definitely not to serve Washington’s strategic interests.
It’s a stance that’s both unsurprising and deeply revealing — especially at a time when the balance of power between the US, Russia, and China is shifting faster than most people realize.
Here’s the backdrop.
The New START treaty, the last surviving nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia, is set to expire in early 2026. That treaty caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems each country can have — it’s one of the few things still holding the old Cold War balance in check.
In late September, Vladimir Putin reportedly floated the idea to then-US President Donald Trump: let’s extend it for another year while we sort things out. Trump, as he does, called it “a good idea” — but since then, Washington hasn’t taken any visible steps.
Instead, Trump suggested something else: bring China into the deal.
That’s where things get interesting.
The US has long wanted Beijing to join nuclear arms reduction talks, arguing that China’s growing stockpile should be part of any future global security framework. But from China’s perspective, it’s just not there yet.
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has around 600 nuclear warheads. Compare that to Russia’s 5,459 or America’s 5,177, and you start to see why Beijing’s response has been, well, polite but firm: “We’re not ready.”
So when Lavrov was asked by Kommersant whether Russia would ever pressure China to join those talks alongside Washington, his answer was blunt:
“Russia will not ally with anyone against anyone, especially against China. It is unthinkable.”
That one sentence carries a lot of weight — not just diplomatically but symbolically.
Lavrov’s basically saying that the Cold War mindset of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” doesn’t apply anymore. Russia’s strategic partnership with China isn’t a convenience — it’s a cornerstone of its foreign policy.
Let’s be honest, this wasn’t always the case.
For decades, Russia and China had a complicated relationship — from ideological rivalry during the Soviet era to cautious cooperation after the USSR’s collapse. But in recent years, that relationship has transformed into what some analysts call strategic symbiosis.
They’re not formal allies (no mutual defense treaty), but they consistently support each other politically, economically, and even militarily.
They’ve signed bilateral treaties outlining cooperation in defense, energy, and trade. Both oppose Western sanctions, NATO expansion, and what they call the “weaponization” of the US dollar.
In plain English: they back each other up.
China buys Russian oil and gas. Russia gets Chinese technology and investment. Together, they present an alternative model to Western-dominated institutions.
So the idea of Russia “pressuring” China on behalf of the US? That’s not just unlikely — it’s geopolitically absurd.
Washington, for its part, has been trying to prevent deeper cooperation between Moscow and Beijing for years.
Think about it: the US has been juggling two major foreign policy challenges — Russia’s confrontation in Ukraine and China’s rise as an economic and military power. The nightmare scenario for American strategists is both powers coordinating closely against US interests.
That’s why some in Washington have floated the idea of driving a wedge between them — appealing to Russia’s pride or historical mistrust of China to create a split.
But it’s not working.
Instead of prying them apart, Western pressure has done the opposite — it’s pushed Russia and China closer together.
Funny enough, every sanction or diplomatic snub from the West seems to accelerate that trend.
Interestingly, Beijing has handled the entire “include China in arms talks” debate with remarkable restraint.
Chinese officials have consistently said that while they support nuclear disarmament, they don’t believe it’s fair to hold them to the same standards as nuclear superpowers that have been stockpiling for decades.
And when Putin offered to extend the New START treaty, Beijing actually praised the move. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated:
“The US and Russia, as the world’s largest nuclear powers, should earnestly fulfill their special and primary responsibility for nuclear disarmament.”
Translation: you two need to set an example before telling others what to do.
Lavrov’s comments aren’t just about nuclear talks — they’re about signaling Moscow’s long-term strategy.
Russia is repositioning itself in a multipolar world, one where the U.S. can’t unilaterally dictate terms. Aligning with China — even loosely — helps cement that shift.
And let’s face it: the two countries complement each other’s strengths. China brings economic might and technological development. Russia brings energy, raw materials, and military power. Together, they have leverage that neither would fully wield alone.
From Moscow’s perspective, joining the U.S. in pressuring China would be like sabotaging its own best ally.
At the end of the day, Lavrov’s “unthinkable” comment isn’t just about diplomacy — it’s a declaration of intent.
Russia sees its partnership with China as vital to its global strategy, not a card to trade for better relations with Washington. The U.S., meanwhile, is realizing that its old tactics of divide and conquer don’t work in a world where its rivals are learning to cooperate.
So no — Russia won’t be teaming up with the U.S. against China anytime soon. Not on nukes, not on trade, not on anything that threatens its carefully balanced alliance.
In fact, if current trends continue, we might be watching the slow formation of something even more powerful — a Eurasian partnership that could reshape the global order for decades to come.
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